Stage 4: Energetic Evans

Cadel Evans is here to play. For the fourth straight stage, the Australian demonstrated good form and determination, steadily increasing the pressure on his rivals for the yellow jersey. Today in Stage 4, he edged out race favorite Alberto Contador to secure his first official stage win at the Tour de France. Evans has a long road to Paris, but the BMC rider is building his confidence, an important factor for this two-time runner-up.

Rain and wind complicated the race, which featured another interesting intermediate sprint for points. After the five-man break passed through, Farrar was next, securing 10 points for a total of 68 thus far. This places him behind green jersey leader Jose Joaquin Rojas, who has 74 points, and indicates that Farrar and his team Garmin-Cervelo are going for the green jersey despite their statements that they are focused exclusively on stage wins. Today, Mark Cavendish came in behind Farrar and earned 7 points. Cav and Thor Hushovd were stripped of the points they won at yesterday’s intermediate sprint by race referees who punished them for leaving their lines at the sprint finish. While the penalty was widely criticized as unnecessary, the result is that the two are further behind in the points competition.

The real drama started at about 2 kilometers to the finish, when the teams of the race favorites jockeyed to get their rider to a safe position at front. Fabian Cancellara was working for Andy Schleck, Luis Leon Sanchez for Robert Gesink, Edvald Boasson Hagen for Bradley Wiggins, and George Hincapie for Cadel Evans, among others. All of the general classification (G.C.) contenders were there. On top of that, teams with riders chasing the stage win were in the mix, including Omega Pharma-Lotto and Philippe Gilbert who hoped to win a second stage on his 29^th birthday.

It was one tough climb, relatively short but steep with sections at 15% grade. The preceding undulating roads added to the challenge. “That’s the hardest 2K climb I’ve ever done, I think,” said American Chris Horner, who was unknowingly riding with a flat tire for some time. Though the true tests come in the Pyrenees and the Alps starting next week, the stage at Mur-de-Bretagne provided the first opportunity for the G.C. contenders to test each other’s climbing legs.

Contador was most eager to make a move on his rivals to gain back the precious seconds he lost in the first two stages. Dancing on the pedals, the Spaniard first attacked at 1.3K to go but was quickly matched by Gilbert, the Belgian birthday boy, with the other riders following. Contador attacked again at 1.1K, and this time Evans matched and passed him. Evans pressed on up to the finish. In the final meters, Contador attempted to beat him to the line, believing he had bested the Australian with his final lunge, but he was wrong. Evans captured the win by a few inches in a photo finish.

The stage is Evans first official Tour de France victory. In 2007, he was awarded first place in the time trial after Alexandre Vinokourov was disqualified for doping. Today’s win will boost the confidence of Evans and his team, though the challenge will be to keep it up for two and a half more weeks. When things go wrong for Evans, he has failed to recover in the past, and he will certainly want to pace himself for the road ahead.

Contador missed his chance to take back time on his rivals, including Evans and Schleck. There is plenty of racing ahead, and everything can change in the big mountains. However, each misstep is like a mosquito bite for Contador—annoying, not serious by itself, but when they add up, it can be a distraction. At the biggest race in the world, nobody can afford a distraction.

Tomorrow, we are back to the sprints. Tyler Farrar will be riding high, Alessandro Petacchi will be itching for some results, and Mark Cavendish will be one mad Manxman. The madder Cavendish gets, the more exciting the final 5 kilometers. This time, he will be facing down a new obstacle—Farrar’s Team Garmin, joyous from their most successful Tour to date. Be sure to watch the last half hour of TV coverage on Versus. I will be on the edge of my seat!

Post-race interview with Cadel Evans: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y-ojeabQIyw

View complete Stage 4 results and overall standings: http://www.letour.fr/2011/TDF/LIVE/us/400/classement/index.html

View Stage 5 map and profile:

http://www.letour.fr/2011/TDF/LIVE/us/500/etape_par_etape.html

Stage 3 Postscript: Unfair Punishment?

Was it too much argy-bargy, or biased judges? Tour de France organizers stripped Thor Hushovd and Mark Cavendish of points as punishment for contact between them at the sprint finish of Stage 3. They claimed Hushovd left his line, which is dangerous to fellow riders at the high racing speeds. Organizers said that Cavendish “forced his way in,” also a potentially unsafe move. The Manxman can be seen using his head to touch Hushovd, keeping a distance between their bikes. Both cyclists lost the points they earned earlier in the stage at the intermediate sprint.

While punishments for dangerous behavior are important for the safety of the peloton, it appears that the imposition of these penalties may not be fair. Cavendish, riding for HTC-Highroad, seems to get punished quite a bit. It may be argued that this is the case because he is particularly aggressive, or that as a frequent winner, he is more often in the mix at the feisty sprint finishes. However, other sprinters seem to avoid punishment, despite being caught on camera making questionable moves, or even the same moves.

Cavendish has complained about competitors breaking the rules to no avail, most recently at the Giro d’Italia in May. But he is not the only cyclist to suggest riders get away with shady strategies. At the Tour of Romandy, Mikael Cherel of Ag2r Mondiale shouted down Astana’s Alexandre Vinokourov, accusing the Kazak of blocking his line. Vinokourov received no punishment.

Are race organizers biased against Cavendish because of his nationality? Team? Stardom? Big mouth? Or are they imposing fair punishments based on the rules of play?

Rough play is a hallmark of bunch sprints, and Paul Sherwin refers to the touchy back-and-forth among the sprinters as “argy-bargy.” It is common enough that imposition of penalties and relegation of wins or points by the organizers appears highly subjective, if not arbitrary. Assuming race organizers believe they are following objective rules, they also have a duty to the appearance of fairness. They should use video and other technology to dissect their decisions and provide evidence of objectivity.

While we hold our breath for that, we also dream of a statistical analysis from a neutral party. Economists aren’t just for the economy anymore. Let them employ objective examination of the judgments by race organizers to determine if those judgments are fair or if bias appears present and where. (See also post: Scorecasting)

To this observer, today looked like argy-bargy. Nothing more.

Watch for yourself:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jLmKTpRXAao

Stage 3: American Wins on the Fourth

Tyler Farrar burst over the finish line, bringing home his first Tour de France stage win and the second consecutive victory for Team Garmin-Cervelo. The win came fittingly on the Fourth of July for the American riding for an American team, while the British were disappointed with the miss for favorite Mark Cavendish, known as the Man from Man.

The intermediate sprint was again exciting, a new focus this year after a change in the rules for the points competition. Cavendish of HTC-Highroad was first among the sprinters, earning 10 points, while Farrar was not a factor. Garmin has stated that their goal is to win stages, not to pursue the green jersey awarded to the rider earning the most points at designated spots over the route.

Once a five-man breakaway was caught by the peloton, the sprinters’ teams organized at the front, and HTC laid out its famous lead-out train of riders escorting Cavendish until the last possible moment. Peter Velits drove the HTC train, then pulled off for Bernard Eisel, then Tony Martin, who appeared surprised by Eisel’s short turn at the front. Matt Goss followed Martin, but a crack in the train occurred at the 2K to go mark. The team was unable to reorganize, and Cavendish was left on his own, stuck in the middle of a group of riders and about five men back. In the meantime, Garmin gathered its lead-out men for Farrar, including Thor Hushovd in the yellow jersey as current race leader. While Hushovd will not keep the jersey for long, it was an unusual sight to see the man in yellow at the front of the brunch sprint, as race leaders normally stay out of the fast, dangerous sprint finishes.

It was a great victory for Farrar, the 27-year-old from Washington. With stage wins at the Giro d’Italia and Vuelta de Espana, he was hungry for a piece of the Tour de France. As he crossed the line, he formed a “W” with his hands, a tribute to his friend Wouter Weylandt who died in a crash at the Giro in May.

The competition between Garmin and HTC is a compelling storyline for American Independence day. These two American teams, along with BMC and RadioShack, demonstrate the flourishing world of professional cycling in the U.S. We have come a long way from the days when Lance Armstrong’s U.S. Postal and Discovery teams were the only players and were focused solely on his victories. Now, American teams are competing at sprints and time trials as well, plus a number of American cyclists are bound to impress in the mountains and the general classification (G.C.).

Indeed, the American climbers like Levi Leipheimer and Chris Horner may come out to play at Tuesday’s Stage 4. The 172.5 kilometer stage will be distinguished by the final climb into Mur-de-Bretagne. Not long, but as steep as 15% in some areas, the last few kilometers are considered as fun as riding up a wall. The G.C. contenders must stay in the front here, and someone may lose his chance for a win if he cracks. Cadel Evans is motivated to maintain his high standings, while Alberto Contador may take this opportunity to bring back the time he has already lost on his rivals. The last 5 kilometers, especially the last brutal 2K, will be the highlight.

Stage 3 Top Finishers:

1. Tyler Farrar (Team Garmin-Cervelo)

2. Romain Feillu (Vacansoleil)

3. Jose Joaquin Rojas (Movistar)

4. Sebastien Hinault (Ag2r La Mondiale)

5. Mark Cavendish (HTC-Highroad)

View complete Stage 3 results: http://www.letour.fr/2011/TDF/LIVE/us/300/classement/index.html

View map and profile of Stage 4: http://www.letour.fr/2011/TDF/LIVE/us/400/index.html

Stage 2: Victorious Garmin



Zabriskie

American team Garmin-Cervelo triumphed at the team time trial, securing the squad’s first ever Tour de France victory. Attacking the course at nearly 40 miles per hour, the team bested all of its rivals and finished the 23 kilometer course in 24 minutes, 48 seconds. Time trial specialist David Zabriskie took the longest pulls at the front and was supported by fellow Americans Christian Vande Velde, Tyler Farrar, and Tom Danielson, among other teammates.

Hesjedal

Since its debut at the 2008 race, the team had impressed with great performances in individual stages and the overall but had not yet captured a stage win until today. Farrar and his teammates have often finished in the top ten on sprint stages, and Garmin riders have also ridden to high overall standings. Vande Velde finished fourth at the Tour de France in 2008, and Canadian Ryder Hesjedal finished seventh last year. This team time trial victory is a great relief, finally delivering that elusive stage win. It is also a confidence booster for future stages, such as tomorrow’s expected sprint where Farrar has the opportunity to bring home back-to-back wins.

The teams of the general classification contenders performed well on the day in Les Essarts. Cadel Evans and BMC finished second, and Andy Schleck’s Leopard-Trek team finished fourth, thanks to hard driving at the front by Fabian Cancellara. Team Sky made a good show with Bradley Wiggins and Geraint Thomas, who took the longest pulls and showed strong form for the rest of the race. Just 10 seconds behind Garmin, RadioShack finished in sixth place, though that American team honored its illustrious history of team time trials with perhaps the most precise and visually beautiful team performance of the day.

Contador’s Saxo Bank squad was the weakest of the leaders, finishing eighth and 28 seconds behind Garmin. This means that Contador has lost more precious seconds on his rivals—not a disaster for the defending champion, but nevertheless a setback. The team was at a disadvantage, as they were the first to ride the course against nothing but the clock. The order of the teams was determined by the results from Stage 1, where the worst placed team was Saxo Bank. The worst placed team started first, and the best placed team—Omega Pharma-Lotto, the team of Stage 1 winner Philippe Gilbert—started last. Later teams benefitted from knowing the results of earlier finishers and could adjust their efforts with updates radioed to them on course. While starting first was a disadvantage for Saxo Bank and an unusual role for a defending champion, the team is heavy on mountain specialists, so their time trial result was a good one.

Eisel

The big disappointment came for HTC-Highroad, another American team considered a pre-race favorite for the stage. The relatively short course favored the squad’s fast legs, but Bernard Eisel crashed at one of the first turns out of the gate. It looked like a simple case of miscalculated bike handling by the Austrian. He failed to catch up to the team, which appeared shaken by the crash. While Eisel was not expected to be a top driver for the day, HTC could not overcome the early loss of one man and finished in fifth place, 5 seconds behind Garmin.

Tomorrow’s stage in western France will see the peloton on flat roads, except for a mild climb about 143 kilometers into the 198 kilometer route. The challenge in the last hour of racing will be strong crosswinds common to the region. Highlights will include the intermediate sprint for points, midway through the race at 104K. Stage 1 revealed the enthusiasm that the green jersey contenders will bring to those intermediate sprints, and we can expect a full-on sprint halfway through. Of course, the big guns will be blazing in the last 10K to the finish. The last kilometer should be a gorgeous display of power and strategy, a fast-paced chess match best watched from a helicopter, or at home on TV.

Garmin-Cervelo team site: http://www.slipstreamsports.com/

Stage 2: Top 10 Teams:

1. Garmin-Cervelo

2. BMC Racing+ 00’ 04”

3. Sky Procycling+ 00’ 04”

4. Leopard-Trek+ 00’ 04”

5. HTC-Highroad+ 00’ 05”

6. RadioShack+ 00’ 10”

7. Raboback Cycling+ 00’ 12”

8. Saxo Bank Sungard            + 00’ 28”

9. Astana+ 00’ 32”

10. Omega Pharma-Lotto+ 00’ 39”

View complete Stage 2 results and overall race standings: http://www.letour.fr/2011/TDF/LIVE/us/200/classement/index.html

View Stage 3 map and profile: http://www.letour.fr/2011/TDF/LIVE/us/300/etape_par_etape.html

Stage 1: It Pays to Ride Out Front

Crashes, surprise splits, teamwork, sprint winners and losers, and a decent little climb all came together today to launch the Tour de France with a bit of everything, like an appetizer sampler at El Torito. Stage 1 included a taste of the many races within the big race and whet our palates for the next three weeks of competition.

While the stage was too hilly for the sprinters, the new set-up of the points competition prompted a heated race in the middle of the course. As usual, points are awarded to the stage winners, and a descending number of points are awarded to the top group of finishers. However this year, race organizers have reduced the number of opportunities to earn points over the course route to one spot. This is the intermediate sprint and is now marked on the course with a prominent green flag. The leader of the points competition wears the green jersey, one of the four jerseys awarded at the finale in Paris. (The others include the yellow jersey for the overall win, the polka dot jersey for the king of the mountains, and the white jersey for the best young rider.)

The change makes each intermediate sprint more important, and while three breakaway riders were the first to make it, an exciting sprint played out among the hottest sprinters in the world for the remaining points. HTC’s Mark Cavendish shot forward and appeared untouchable, until he missed Garmin’s Tyler Farrar coming up the side. Once Cavendish realized what was happening, it was clear he would be beaten and gave up the fight. Farrar hit the sprint point first among the bunch, earning 13 points toward the green jersey and a certain boost to his confidence. Neither Farrar nor his team has won a single stage at the Tour de France, and the points indicate they are not fooling around this year. Andre Greipel was just behind Farrar. Greipel of Omega Pharma-Lotto is Cavendish’s former teammate and long-time rival. We can expect this to make Cavendish—the Manx Missile—quite annoyed, and when he is annoyed, he can produce amazing results. Watch out for Monday’s flat stage for a rematch.

An epic crash occurred 8 kilometers to the finish line. It was epic thankfully not for any significant damage to the riders, but for splitting the peloton in half. The entire second half of the pack was stopped cold following a crash caused by a spectator standing too close to the course. Cadel Evans of BMC raced on with the front group, as he had spent the day riding at the front with his teammates around him. Their extra effort paid off when Evans finished second on the day and built a nice cushion against general classification favorite Alberto Contador. The three-time winner was caught in the first crash, then another crash less than 2 kilometers to the finish. Contador finished 1 minute 20 seconds behind the stage winner, giving Evans a 1 minute 17 second advantage over Contador. The other pre-race favorite Andy Schleck finished with the first group, securing a 1 minute 14 second advantage over the Spaniard. Remember that last year, Schleck lost the Tour to Contador by a total of 39 seconds overall, so while we have a long way to go, Evans is grinning in his sleep tonight.

So who won the stage? Phillipe Gilbert of Omega Pharma-Lotto. He was one of the favorites going in because of his good performances on the rolling type of route as seen today. Gilbert was sporting a yellow, red, and black jersey as the new champion of Belgium, though it would also blend in well at McDonald’s. With today’s victory, he will wear the leader’s yellow jersey at tomorrow’s stage.

Looking forward to tomorrow, Stage 2 will be a completely different competition. The team time trial is a gorgeous demonstration of the concept of drafting. Each team rolls out together, racing against the clock. Riders take turns at the front, while the rest of the team follows in a line behind. The front rider suffers the most, breaking the wind for the others who are resting. They are drafting behind the front man. Next, the front rider pulls off to the side, falling to the back of the line, and a fresh man takes his turn at the front. They rotate through with the strong individual time trialers and general classification riders taking the longest pulls at the front, a display of individual sacrifice for the benefit of the team.

When performed at its highest levels, team time trials are beauty in motion. The cyclists are decked out in their aerodynamic kits with long sleeves and pointy helmets. Much of their individuality is gone, and the team is one, with one rider pulling at the front, then a smooth transition to the next rider, then another. Lance Armstrong’s teams were always great at the team time trial, and they were often called Stormtroopers. The men became disciplined machines, working seamlessly together, weaving amongst each other. Lance’s teams were so good that race organizers took this discipline out of the Tour de France, and we are thrilled that it is back this year.

The favorites for Stage 2 are HTC-Highroad and Garmin-Cervelo. Garmin will certainly be looking for that first Tour stage win, and if they win, Thor Hushovd would don the yellow jersey as the race leader. HTC has group of speed demons with a record of success in this discipline, and if they take the stage, Tony Martin would get yellow. Leopard-Trek will also push hard, led by time trial phenomenon Fabian Cancellara and the motivation of Andy Schleck to capture every second possible. RadioShack is another team to watch, with Levi Leipheimer’s time trialing ability and the same culture that created Lance’s wins. Finally, Contador’s Saxo Bank and Evans’ BMC will be fighting not to lose significant time to their rivals.

Watch the whole of Stage 2, as each team that rolls out could provide a great ride. Also, watching the poorer-performing teams illuminates how beautifully the winning teams work together. Coverage continues on Versus, online, and on NBC from 12pm to 1:30pm Pacific time.

View complete Stage 1 results: http://www.letour.fr/2011/TDF/LIVE/us/100/classement/index.html

View Stage 2 map and profile: http://www.letour.fr/2011/TDF/LIVE/us/200/etape_par_etape.html

Tour de France: Viewing Tips for Beginners

Never watched the Tour de France? Tuned in and wondered what was going on? Here are a few tips for first time viewers for Week 1, and you might end up like me, jumping up and down in my living room screaming GO, GO, GO!

The race is televised on Versus, often a channel that requires a step above the normal digital cable package. Online access to live coverage may be purchased at http://tourdefrance.nbcsports.com/ for $29.95, and there are also iPhone and iPad apps available. The TV coverage is plenty for most of us.

Each stage is televised several times a day and is always abbreviated. The riders are on course often five or six hours a day, and we get the highlights. The first telecast each morning is the longest, usually 5am to 8:30am Pacific time. It includes some charming banter among the group of commentators who cover the race, and they bet on who will win the day. If you are recording this first time slot, you may wish to record an extra thirty minutes at the end, in case the stage runs longer than expected. You certainly don’t want to miss the big finish! Shorter telecasts usually air 9am to 11am, 12:30pm to 2:30pm, 5pm to 6:30pm, 6:30pm to 8pm, 9pm to 10:30pm, and 10:30pm to 12am. They are edited to ensure a complete report from start to finish.

Phil Liggett (with Paul Sherwin at right)

Different commentators cover different time slots, with veterans Phil Liggett and Paul Sherwin traditionally covering the first telecast. The British duo brings deep historical knowledge of the sport, and in a calm, cool, and clever manner, they put things in perspective. Phil and Paul are retired professional cyclists, as is commentator Bob Roll, also known as Bobke. He is a hoot with quick and wild analogies and leads the alternate commentator team.

A good start to viewing is the summary at the top of the each program. It includes what happened yesterday and what to look out for today. If you ever miss a finish, just watch the start of the next day for a solid recap.

To hit the juiciest parts of the race, your viewing strategies may vary by the type of stage. In the mountains, anything can happen anytime, but in the sprints, drama is guaranteed in the final kilometers. You never know when a crash may change everything, or when a cow might cross the road, but if you are just dipping your toe into the water of cycling, you may wish to focus your viewing time.

Stage 1 on Saturday, July 2^nd, is too steep for the true sprinters, so a wide range of cyclists are capable of victory. Keep your eye on time trial god Fabian Cancellara of Leopard-Trek and former green jersey champ Thor Hushovd of Garmin-Cervelo. Despite some incline, the excitement should be centered in the final 5 to 10 kilometers of the race.

Stage 2 on Sunday is a different story. It is the team time trial, and American teams HTC-Highroad and Garmin-Cervelo will be duking it out. Also, the teams of general classification contenders such as Alberto Contador of Saxo Bank and Andy Schleck of Leopard-Trek cannot afford to phone it in. For this stage, watch at least the final hour of coverage to see a range of teams in this unique discipline.

Stage 3 on Monday, July 4^th, is the first truly flat stage, the perfect set-up for a thrilling sprint finish. While the sprinters teams start pushing hard in the last 50 kilometers, it is the last 5K that keep you at the edge of your seat. It is like watching a high-speed chess match, as the teammates try to launch their sprinter off the front at the last possible moment. Sprints are the California roll of cycling. Give those last five kilometers a watch. They are so easy and fun, you will be hooked for more! In sprint stages, the cyclists ride about 1K a minute, so don’t miss the last half hour of coverage to see the race play out, the slow motion replay, and the day’s winner on top of the podium.

Now that you have whet your appetite with a good sprint, it’s time for some hearty inclines at Stage 4. With some patches of the course at 15% grade, it will be the first time that the general classification riders will separate from the rest of the peloton. This is where someone will lose the whole enchilada, and the rest will live to fight another day. The last 10 kilometers will feature steep ascents and fast and furious descents, so the last hour of TV coverage will be worth watching.

Stage 5 on July 6^th will be another flat stage, perfect for the sprinters. The hot competition will be between Mark Cavendish of HTC-Highroad, winner of a remarkable 15 Tour de France stages in three years; Tyler Farrar of Garmin-Cervelo, an accomplished sprinter yet to win a Tour stage; and Alessandro Petacchi of Lampre-ISD, a veteran enjoying a career renaissance in the last two years. Again, on sprint stages, the last five kilometers cannot be missed.

The next stage is the longest one of the 2011 Tour de France. A few climbs on Stage 6 make it unappealing for the sprinters, so this is another day ripe for surprise. The last hour or so of the day cannot be predicted.

Finishing the first week, Stage 7 finishes at Chateauroux, where Cavendish captured his first Tour win in 2008. This is a sprint finish, and Cav—the Manx Missile—will be hungry to repeat. Each time he crosses the line first, watch for his unique winning gestures. The guy is a character.

While these are some reasonable predictions, anything can happen at the Tour de France. No one could have anticipated that Andy Schleck’s brother Frank would have crashed out on the fourth day of last year’s Tour. Further, there are always finish line surprises. Some rider comes out of obscurity to foil the best-laid plans of the favorites, and that unpredictability adds excitement to each day.

Note that little is said here about the general classification (G.C.) contenders, those aiming to win the Tour de France overall. That is because they most often distinguish themselves in the mountains, where most of the field and especially the sprinters, suffer and fall far behind. Stages 8 and 9 feature some climbing, but the true test will come in the Pyrenees starting on Stage 12. Also, part of the secret to winning the Tour is to conserve energy. The G.C. contenders will be saving themselves for the mountains and for the coming weeks of the race. As Levi Leipheimer says, the Tour de France is a Superbowl every day for three weeks. They cannot blow their resources in the first week.

Set your DVRs and alarm clocks! It’s Tour time!

TdF Preview: The Contenders

With the Tour de France starting on Saturday, it’s time to talk about the contenders for the general classification (overall win). The rivalry between Alberto Contador and Andy Schleck is expected to be center stage, but a slew of other competitors will also be aiming for the top of the podium. Plus, Contador’s unresolved doping charges cast a cloud over the race.

Alberto Contador

The defending champion, the 2011 Tour de France is Contador’s to lose. He has won the Tour three times, and he has won all six Grand Tours he has entered since 2007. This includes the Giro d’Italia, where he pocketed his second win in May. As the Giro is also a three-week race, it can be challenging for riders to recover for the Tour in July, but all signs point to Contador being in good form. This year, the 28-year-old Spaniard switched from the Astana team to Saxo Bank, ironically the former team of rival Andy Schleck, and he is not known for attracting or retaining the strongest teammates. An unseemly aspect of Contador’s racing this season is the doping charge from last year’s Tour. He tested positive for a trace amount of clenbuterol, a banned substance, on the second rest day of the race. Contador claimed it came from tainted beef he had eaten. The Spanish racing federation cleared him of wrongdoing, but the court of arbitration decided to delay their ruling on the pending appeal until after the Tour de France. As such, it is possible that Contador could win the Tour, and then later be ruled ineligible for the season, leaving Tour de France organizers to strip him of his title. From the start, the handling of the charges stinks of bias in Contador’s favor, as similar incidents such as that of Floyd Landis were processed very differently, and it taints Contador’s achievements.

Andy Schleck

For the last two years, Schleck has finished in second place, and he is getting hungrier for the big win. This season, the Luxembourger launched a new Luxembourg team—Leopard-Trek—which includes his brother Frank, time trial star Fabian Cancellara, veteran Jens Voigt, and other strong riders. Most came from team Saxo Bank, where Contador now rides, and they hope to turn around the bad luck from 2010. Frank crashed out of the race on the fourth day, and in a crucial moment in the mountains, Andy dropped his chain. Contador attacked right then, a controversial move under the gentlemen’s rules of cycling. Andy Schleck lost 39 seconds that day and ended up losing the Tour to Contador by that exact amount of time. The 26-year-old is primed and ready to seize the win this year, and the Contador-Schleck rivalry will surely entertain.

Cadel Evans

The Australian has finished second at the Tour de France in 2007 and 2008, and he continues to race for number one. Racing for Team BMC, Evans will be supported by Americans George Hincapie and Brent Bookwalter, among other riders. Hincapie will be racing in his sixteenth Tour, and his knowledge of the race will be an asset for Evans. World champion in 2009, 34-year-old Cadel has been criticized for riding too passively and failing to attack. He cannot afford to lay low with aggressive riders like Contador and Schleck in the peloton. The team is co-owned by Jim Ochowicz, who launched the 7-Eleven team which was the first U.S. team to compete in the Tour de France 25 years ago.

Everybody Else

If I had money on this year’s Tour, I would definitely go with Contador, Schleck, or Evans, but a little bad luck for them and a little good luck for another guy could yield surprising results. Any of these riders could steal the show.

• Ivan Basso: The 33-year-old Italian won the Giro d’Italia in 2006 and 2010. In 2008, he completed a racing ban following accusations of doping. He finished 32^nd in last year’s Tour de France and rides for Liquigas.
• Bradley Wiggins: A former track cyclist and Olympic gold medal winner, he rides for Team Sky, the British team where many UK cycling resources have been concentrated. The 31-year-old will enjoy a strong team to back him up.
• Alexander Vinokourov: The icy Kazak leads team Astana, Contador’s former team. As the team has been set up to support him, the 37-year-old is motivated to bring home results. He completed a one-year ban after a positive dope test in 2007 and remains a strong climber.
• Sammy Sanchez: Finishing fourth at last year’s Tour, the Spaniard has ridden for the Spanish team Euskatel-Euskadi since 2000. He is the 2008 Olympic men’s road race gold medal winner.
• Jurgen Van den Broeck: The 28-year-old Belgian finished fifth in last year’s Tour. He rides for Omega Pharma-Lotto and has limited results.

The Americans

While it is unlikely that these Americans will win the Tour, at least one of them is sure to impress.

Leipheimer, Horner & Tom Danielson of Garmin-Cervelo

• Christian Vande Velde: After finishing fourth at the Tour in 2008 and eighth in 2009, Vande Velde was forced to withdraw from last year’s race after breaking two ribs in a crash. At age 35, he flirts with retiring and wants to go out with some big results for Garmin-Cervelo.
• Chris Horner: At age 39, he is surprising us with his best form, and Horner has no interest in getting off the bike. Riding for Radioshack with Lance Armstrong last year, he had to hold back to shepherd his teammates. Hopefully there will be no holding back this time around.
• Levi Leipheimer: Horner’s teammate, Leipheimer is one of the world’s best time trialers and impressive in the mountains. His best finish was third place in 2007. Time will tell if the 37-year-old can hold his own with Schleck and the other young riders this July.

With three weeks of racing, the competition for the overall win of the 2011 Tour de France will heat up when the riders reach the Pyrenees at Stage 12. Until then, we are likely to watch some great sprints and minor sorting of the G.C. (general classification) field. And surprises. There are always surprises!