How Guilty Is The UCI?

The UCI’s leaked list of suspicious riders looks like the script for a soap opera. They cast the characters ranging from the innocent ingenues, scoring 1, to the really, really, really guilty villains, scoring 10. I wonder where Susan Lucci would rank.

The sad plot twist is that our taxpayer dollars contribute to this anti-doping system, which is itself highly suspicious. It lacks the transparency and accountability of American courts, denying us the ability to judge the judges, while denying cyclists the ability to directly confront the accusations and attempt to clear their names.

A statistical analysis of anti-doping testing in pro cycling would be a useful step. Let’s look at the last 20 years of testing stats for:

• Who is being tested? When? Where? How often?
• Who conducts the testing? When? Where?
• What are the results?
• What are the punishments for violators?

Then, these statistics should be analyzed for patterns that could indicate testing bias, groups prone to cheating, and other results. Areas to examine would include factors related to the cyclist (nationality, team, specialty, record, etc.), team (country, record, stability of sponsorship), race (country, length of race, stage in the race, type of route), and testers and labs.

This analysis would objectively test long-held public suspicions and put a number on it. For example, if you are a Spanish cyclist, competing for the G.C., with a winning record, how much less (or more) likely are you to get suspended than an American with a mixed record? If you are Italian, on an Italian team, how much more (or less) often are you likely to be tested during the off-season? Do labs in certain countries identify violators at significantly higher rates?

A true statistical analysis in cycling testing would be an exhausting proposition, given the many factors at play, not the least of which are the dopers themselves. Yet similar analyses of American courts have revealed biases such as racial and economic disparities, which once identified, may be addressed. Further, this would be the opportunity for the UCI to clear its name and prove it is a fair referee.

Until we can get an honest, objective picture of testing in cycling, I suppose we are stuck with the Days of Our Lives…