TdF Preview: The Contenders

With the Tour de France starting on Saturday, it’s time to talk about the contenders for the general classification (overall win). The rivalry between Alberto Contador and Andy Schleck is expected to be center stage, but a slew of other competitors will also be aiming for the top of the podium. Plus, Contador’s unresolved doping charges cast a cloud over the race.

Alberto Contador

The defending champion, the 2011 Tour de France is Contador’s to lose. He has won the Tour three times, and he has won all six Grand Tours he has entered since 2007. This includes the Giro d’Italia, where he pocketed his second win in May. As the Giro is also a three-week race, it can be challenging for riders to recover for the Tour in July, but all signs point to Contador being in good form. This year, the 28-year-old Spaniard switched from the Astana team to Saxo Bank, ironically the former team of rival Andy Schleck, and he is not known for attracting or retaining the strongest teammates. An unseemly aspect of Contador’s racing this season is the doping charge from last year’s Tour. He tested positive for a trace amount of clenbuterol, a banned substance, on the second rest day of the race. Contador claimed it came from tainted beef he had eaten. The Spanish racing federation cleared him of wrongdoing, but the court of arbitration decided to delay their ruling on the pending appeal until after the Tour de France. As such, it is possible that Contador could win the Tour, and then later be ruled ineligible for the season, leaving Tour de France organizers to strip him of his title. From the start, the handling of the charges stinks of bias in Contador’s favor, as similar incidents such as that of Floyd Landis were processed very differently, and it taints Contador’s achievements.

Andy Schleck

For the last two years, Schleck has finished in second place, and he is getting hungrier for the big win. This season, the Luxembourger launched a new Luxembourg team—Leopard-Trek—which includes his brother Frank, time trial star Fabian Cancellara, veteran Jens Voigt, and other strong riders. Most came from team Saxo Bank, where Contador now rides, and they hope to turn around the bad luck from 2010. Frank crashed out of the race on the fourth day, and in a crucial moment in the mountains, Andy dropped his chain. Contador attacked right then, a controversial move under the gentlemen’s rules of cycling. Andy Schleck lost 39 seconds that day and ended up losing the Tour to Contador by that exact amount of time. The 26-year-old is primed and ready to seize the win this year, and the Contador-Schleck rivalry will surely entertain.

Cadel Evans

The Australian has finished second at the Tour de France in 2007 and 2008, and he continues to race for number one. Racing for Team BMC, Evans will be supported by Americans George Hincapie and Brent Bookwalter, among other riders. Hincapie will be racing in his sixteenth Tour, and his knowledge of the race will be an asset for Evans. World champion in 2009, 34-year-old Cadel has been criticized for riding too passively and failing to attack. He cannot afford to lay low with aggressive riders like Contador and Schleck in the peloton. The team is co-owned by Jim Ochowicz, who launched the 7-Eleven team which was the first U.S. team to compete in the Tour de France 25 years ago.

Everybody Else

If I had money on this year’s Tour, I would definitely go with Contador, Schleck, or Evans, but a little bad luck for them and a little good luck for another guy could yield surprising results. Any of these riders could steal the show.

• Ivan Basso: The 33-year-old Italian won the Giro d’Italia in 2006 and 2010. In 2008, he completed a racing ban following accusations of doping. He finished 32^nd in last year’s Tour de France and rides for Liquigas.
• Bradley Wiggins: A former track cyclist and Olympic gold medal winner, he rides for Team Sky, the British team where many UK cycling resources have been concentrated. The 31-year-old will enjoy a strong team to back him up.
• Alexander Vinokourov: The icy Kazak leads team Astana, Contador’s former team. As the team has been set up to support him, the 37-year-old is motivated to bring home results. He completed a one-year ban after a positive dope test in 2007 and remains a strong climber.
• Sammy Sanchez: Finishing fourth at last year’s Tour, the Spaniard has ridden for the Spanish team Euskatel-Euskadi since 2000. He is the 2008 Olympic men’s road race gold medal winner.
• Jurgen Van den Broeck: The 28-year-old Belgian finished fifth in last year’s Tour. He rides for Omega Pharma-Lotto and has limited results.

The Americans

While it is unlikely that these Americans will win the Tour, at least one of them is sure to impress.

Leipheimer, Horner & Tom Danielson of Garmin-Cervelo

• Christian Vande Velde: After finishing fourth at the Tour in 2008 and eighth in 2009, Vande Velde was forced to withdraw from last year’s race after breaking two ribs in a crash. At age 35, he flirts with retiring and wants to go out with some big results for Garmin-Cervelo.
• Chris Horner: At age 39, he is surprising us with his best form, and Horner has no interest in getting off the bike. Riding for Radioshack with Lance Armstrong last year, he had to hold back to shepherd his teammates. Hopefully there will be no holding back this time around.
• Levi Leipheimer: Horner’s teammate, Leipheimer is one of the world’s best time trialers and impressive in the mountains. His best finish was third place in 2007. Time will tell if the 37-year-old can hold his own with Schleck and the other young riders this July.

With three weeks of racing, the competition for the overall win of the 2011 Tour de France will heat up when the riders reach the Pyrenees at Stage 12. Until then, we are likely to watch some great sprints and minor sorting of the G.C. (general classification) field. And surprises. There are always surprises!